2025 has been an incredibly volatile year for U.S. businesses, wrought with geopolitical instability, legislative turbulence and the headwinds of Trump-era tariff implementation. While these stressors negatively impacted CFOs’ outlook from quarter to quarter, recent developments seem to have produced renewed optimism for what lies ahead.
New data from CFO Leadership’s fourth quarter CFO Confidence Index, conducted November 6-12 among 106 U.S. CFOs, finds their rating of current business conditions at 6.0 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent—that is a 9 percent increase since last quarter and nearly recuperates the nosedive in confidence we observed in March.
Many CFOs participating in the poll attribute this rebound to a greater sense of clarity as to what comes next—a sentiment also shared by CEOs in our sister publication’s November CEO Confidence Index. One CFO describes his optimism as rooted in renewed “economic stability” and strong “customer forward looking statements.” Others agreed, citing a “more favorable regulatory environment, access to capital and increased business activity.”
Forecasts for how this will continue to evolve into next year show even further upward momentum: CFOs expect conditions to climb to 6.3 out of 10 by this time next year—a 4-percent improvement over current conditions.
Still, the CFO community is polarized. Some believe the current administration’s approach to the economy––from tax cuts to SALT deductions––is driving business optimism for the year ahead, while others argue the lack or unreliability of key economic data calls for renewed caution.
Others report sector-specific issues, particularly when it comes to firms focused on events and construction.
Forty-one percent of the CFOs polled project improving business conditions one year from now, down from 43 percent last quarter. This is offset, however, by a significant increase in the proportion of finance executives who expect no change into next year: It is now 34 percent, up from 24 percent in August. Fewer CFOs expect to see worsening conditions, painting an overall improved picture of economic conditions this month.
Looking at the data by company size, mid-market companies are the most cautious in their forecast for 2026. Those at companies with $250 million to $500 million in revenue say they forecast conditions to be 5.3 by this time next year, vs. 7.2 among smaller firms—a 26-percent delta that is important to note.
This small-market strength, according to the CFOs polled, is largely a result of increased financial clarity and year-over-year growth for smaller companies. One CFO of a firm sized $25 million to $49.9 million reported “clear visibility across all departments and understanding market trends” as integral to his bullish forecast.
Significant deltas also exist across sectors, with a large degree of industry-dependent polarization. Healthcare CFOs report the highest future forecast at 8.0 out of 10, while real estate and restaurant CFOs are much more hesitant (2.0-3.0 range).
THE YEAR AHEAD
When asked how these conditions are expected to affect their respective companies, CFOs were particularly optimistic this quarter, though pullbacks are apparent when it comes to hiring and cash/debt ratios:
- 76 percent of CFOs expect an increase in revenue over the next year, up from 70 percent last quarter.
- 69 percent expect an increase in profits, up from 57 percent in Q3.
- 41 percent expect to add to their headcount, down 15 percent from the prior quarter.
- 45 percent intend to deploy more capital over the next year, up from 38 percent last quarter.
- 58 percent expect to add to their cash position, while 25 percent are increasing their debt levels (both up since last quarter).
For further 2026 forecasts and insights split across company size, ownership type, sector and other dimensions, consult Chief Executive Group’s Financial Benchmarks Report for U.S. Companies to see how you measure up against your peers.
About the CFO Confidence Index
Every quarter, CFO Leadership surveys hundreds of CFOs across America at organizations of all types and sizes to inform our CFO Confidence Index, a real-time and forward-looking tracker of CFO confidence in current and future business environments, as well as their forecast for their company’s revenue, profit, capex and cash/debt ratio for the year ahead. Learn more at CFOLeadership.com/cfo-confidence-index/
