How can finance leaders manage uncertainty expertly? The first step is to determine what kind of uncertainty we’re talking about, says Hilary Norris, CFO of treasury management software company GTreasury.
Uncertainty comes in at least three distinct types, and that’s just from a macro perspective. Currently, U.S. businesses are experiencing two of the three, one of which concerns AI.
In the interview below, Norris, whose years in corporate finance have brought her to the UK, Asia-Pacific, the Netherlands and the U.S., explains why CFOs tend to handle some uncertainty better than others. The University of Oxford grad also reveals how CFOs can distinguish innovative emerging technologies from vendor hype and why successful adoption of new finance systems requires going beyond the generic RFP.
During your finance career, what has been the most challenging period of economic uncertainty? How did that experience shape your approach to finance leadership?
I tend to categorize economic uncertainty into three buckets. There’s “rational” uncertainty, such as recessions or even Covid-19, which largely follows predictable patterns—a downturn followed by an inevitable upturn. Then, there is “irrational” uncertainty, which we’re experiencing now with the on-again, off-again tariff environment.
The third and most challenging kind of uncertainty, though, is what I consider the “no frame of reference” bucket. This is where CFOs sit with AI. Unlike previous disruptions, there’s no real historical parallel to predict confidently what might happen and to what degree. The only somewhat comparable shift might be when computers first entered the workforce, but that transition took 10 to 15 years. With AI, we’re talking about changes of a similar magnitude occurring in 10 to 15 months.
This “no frame of reference” uncertainty makes CFOs’ mental pliability very, very critical. Those with rigid mindsets will struggle. Many CFOs are relatively comfortable with rational uncertainty; they know to cut back during recessions and prepare for the bounce-back. They can even game-theory their way through irrational periods. But many are deeply uncomfortable with AI’s potential impact.
Consider how functions like FP&A, traditionally powered by human analysis, are being augmented or even superseded by agentic AI capabilities. The question becomes: How do you reshape your finance team to operate effectively in this new paradigm? I expect many CFOs will require a fundamentally different leadership approach that embraces uncertainty and views it as an opportunity for transformation rather than a threat to manage.
How do you personally stay ahead of emerging financial technologies and trends, and what filtering process do you use to separate genuine innovations from industry hype?
My approach to emerging technologies is based on two principles: adopting a “system- and digital-first” mentality and being prepared to take calculated risks with a “fail-fast” philosophy.
“The question becomes: How do you reshape your finance team to operate effectively in this new paradigm?”
I’ll give you an example. When evaluating business intelligence tools, we experimented with several options. One clearly wasn’t working for us after a modest investment, so we quickly abandoned it. The willingness to try and discard what doesn’t serve your specific needs is crucial in separating valuable innovations from hype.
More importantly, the filtering process starts with honest clarity about your business’ goals. Many organizations make the mistake of using generic RFPs with endless tick-box requirements. If you’re doing that, you’re missing the point.
What do you use instead?
I like to focus on identifying our primary and secondary objectives. For instance, if risk management is our highest priority—a five on a one-to-five scale—other functionality, like cash positioning, might merit a three. The hierarchy drives our technology decisions.
When we selected our ERP system, we began with a standard template and ruthlessly eliminated any irrelevant questions. Many companies, particularly large ones, mistakenly believe they’re thorough by asking 700 questions in an RFP. They’re doing themselves a disservice by not focusing on what’s essential to their organization.
A universal truth about technology that many overlook is that success depends on the application, not the technology itself. People often believe a system will magically fix their problems without clearly defining those problems. This misalignment leads to implementation failures.
The most effective approach is to start with the “why.” Understand the business challenge you’re solving before evaluating any technology. Without this clarity, you’ll find yourself pouring budget into solutions that won’t deliver value, regardless of how “innovative” they appear or claim to be. Technical capabilities matter far less than proper application to the specific business context.
Over your five years at GTreasury, what have you learned about CFOs’ perspectives of the treasury department?
I’ve observed a pervasive dichotomy between CFOs who stay actively knowledgeable about treasury management and its potential and those who don’t. I’m not saying that CFOs need operational treasury skills, but they should make an effort to understand what treasury does and the strategic value it brings.
Responsibility for this disconnect can lie with both parties. Treasurers bring valuable functional expertise, but there’s an opportunity to communicate more effectively how new treasury opportunities and innovations can impact broader business goals.
I also believe treasury is frequently viewed as a tactical, back-office function when it is deeply strategic. Treasury controls your dry powder, your financial resources and capabilities. When treasurers understand how their work on debt management, capital costs and cash positioning impacts broader business strategy, they can help unlock significant competitive advantages.
